By — Nick Schifrin Nick Schifrin Leave your feedback Share Copy URL https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/why-a-russian-evasion-of-ukraine-appears-imminent-despite-intense-diplomatic-efforts Email Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Pinterest Tumblr Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Transcript Audio The Biden administration on Friday issued its most urgent warning yet that Russia could launch a war in Ukraine at any time. More than 100,000 Russian troops surround Ukraine on three sides, and national security adviser Jake Sullivan urged Americans to leave by the end of the weekend. U.S. officials tell our Nick Schifrin, they fear the war could start next week. Read the Full Transcript Notice: Transcripts are machine and human generated and lightly edited for accuracy. They may contain errors. Judy Woodruff: Today, the Biden administration issued its most urgent warning yet that Russia could launch a war in Ukraine at any time. More than 100,000 Russian troops surround Ukraine on three sides, and the president's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, urged Americans to leave by the end of the weekend.U.S. officials tell our Nick Schifrin they fear the war could start next week.And Nick joins me now.So, Nick, what is it that has led to this more stark language coming from the administration? Nick Schifrin: Yes, Judy, as you have said, Russia has deployed one of the largest forces that Europe has seen in the last 50 years.And Western and U.S. officials tell me that, in recent days, the U.S. saw those forces increase their readiness for a possible invasion. And U.S. officials became convinced that the timeline is being accelerated into next week.And so those facts combined led U.S. and military officials to brief their NATO allies. And three Western and U.S. officials tell me that President Vladimir Putin had made the decision to invade.Now, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan was asked about my reporting by my colleague Amna Nawaz, and Sullivan said that Putin hadn't made that call just yet. Jake Sullivan, U.S. National Security Adviser: We are not saying that a decision has been taken, a final decision has been taken by President Putin.What we are saying is that we have a sufficient level of concern, based on what we are seeing on the ground and what our intelligence analysts have picked up, that we are sending this clear message. Nick Schifrin: And that concern comes from three distinct aspects, Judy.First of all is the quantity of the forces. Take a look at this map from the south in Crimea to the southeast, where Russia has invaded in the past, to the Northeast and north and northwest along the Belarus border. Russian forces surround Ukraine. And, in Belarus, we have seen 30,000 Russian troops exercising.U.S. officials are also worried about the capabilities of those forces. Senior officials tell me Russia has moved everything from advanced missiles to advanced devices that can target Ukrainian telecommunications.And the third aspect is Russian intent. U.S. officials fear that Russian forces could assault Kyiv, like you're seeing on that map there, to try and depose the government.Now, last night, President Biden said — quote — that any invasion, "Things could go crazy quickly." Sullivan today laid it out specifically. Jake Sullivan: If a Russian attack on Ukraine proceeds, it is likely to begin with aerial bombing and missile attacks that could obviously kill civilians without regard to their nationality. A subsequent ground invasion would involve the onslaught of a massive force.With virtually no notice, communications to arrange a departure could be severed, and commercial transit halted. Nick Schifrin: That means all communications, from cell phones in Ukraine to Internet, even GPS.And that is why the U.S. is warning Americans to get out this weekend. Judy Woodruff: And so, Nick, is there anything going on at this moment on the diplomatic track? Nick Schifrin: There are two items on the calendar still, Judy.President Biden will talk to Putin tomorrow morning. Putin had wanted to speak this coming Monday. But the U.S. proposed tomorrow, and the Kremlin accepted. That's according to an administration official.And German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is still scheduled, according to a senior German official I just spoke, to travel to Kyiv and Moscow to meet with Ukrainian and Russian officials.The administration, Judy, is trying to maintain any possible off-ramp, despite, frankly, the dire predictions. Judy Woodruff: And, meantime, military moves announced today by the Biden administration? Nick Schifrin: Yes, the Pentagon announced that an additional 1,300 troops from the 82nd Airborne from Fort Bragg, North Carolina, would deploy to Poland.That brings the total number deployed from the U.S. to Poland in the last month to 3,000 soldiers. And that's in addition to an additional 1,000 American soldiers who arrived today in another Eastern NATO flank country, Romania, from their deployment in Germany. That almost doubles the number of U.S. forces there.Now, Judy, I should mention that, this evening, the Russians put out a statement saying that all of these American increased warnings — quote — of a — were a — quote — "coordinated information" attack aimed at discrediting Russia's demands.U.S. officials, Judy, say it is Russia that is planning an information attack ahead of any invasion. Judy Woodruff: Nick Schifrin reporting on all these fast-moving events.And, Nick, I know you're going to continue to follow it as the weekend goes forward.Nick Schifrin, thank you. Nick Schifrin: Thank you. Listen to this Segment Watch Watch the Full Episode PBS NewsHour from Feb 11, 2022 By — Nick Schifrin Nick Schifrin Nick Schifrin is PBS NewsHour’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Correspondent. He leads NewsHour’s daily foreign coverage, including multiple trips to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion, and has created weeklong series for the NewsHour from nearly a dozen countries. The PBS NewsHour series “Inside Putin’s Russia” won a 2017 Peabody Award and the National Press Club’s Edwin M. Hood Award for Diplomatic Correspondence. In 2020 Schifrin received the American Academy of Diplomacy’s Arthur Ross Media Award for Distinguished Reporting and Analysis of Foreign Affairs. He was a member of the NewsHour teams awarded a 2021 Peabody for coverage of COVID-19, and a 2023 duPont Columbia Award for coverage of Afghanistan and Ukraine. Prior to PBS NewsHour, Schifrin was Al Jazeera America's Middle East correspondent. He led the channel’s coverage of the 2014 war in Gaza; reported on the Syrian war from Syria's Turkish, Lebanese and Jordanian borders; and covered the annexation of Crimea. He won an Overseas Press Club award for his Gaza coverage and a National Headliners Award for his Ukraine coverage. From 2008-2012, Schifrin served as the ABC News correspondent in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In 2011 he was one of the first journalists to arrive in Abbottabad, Pakistan, after Osama bin Laden’s death and delivered one of the year’s biggest exclusives: the first video from inside bin Laden’s compound. His reporting helped ABC News win an Edward R. Murrow award for its bin Laden coverage. Schifrin is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a board member of the Overseas Press Club Foundation. He has a Bachelor’s degree from Columbia University and a Master of International Public Policy degree from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). @nickschifrin