Which candidates might be worried about N.H. outcomes

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• GWEN IFILL:

  We look at what's at stake for both Republicans and Democrats now with Tamara Keith of NPR, who joins us from Manchester, and Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report, who is here with me.

  So, Tam, in these last days going into the way this whole thing is sorted out, who seems — which candidate seems the most nervous tonight?

• TAMARA KEITH, NPR:

  Hmm. I think that's a very good question.

  Well, I think a lot of — on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton doesn't have a lot of nervousness, because there's a resignation to the way things are going to turn out. It's about the margin of victory for Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.

  On the Republican side, I think that someone like Chris Christie has to be hoping that something will happen. John Kasich has been relaxed out on the trail today. So, it's — and Donald Trump, he probably has a lot to be nervous about, because he has been — he has these huge poll numbers, but, in Iowa, that didn't translate into a win, and he sure has to hope to get a win tonight.

• GWEN IFILL:

  It's really interesting.

  Amy, we have seen first wave of exit polls today from today's voting, which tells us a lot about who voted and when they vote — when they decided to vote.

• AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report:

  Right.

  So, I'm looking for a lot of things in these exit polls, but one of the most interesting is the independent voters, people who do not define themselves as Democrat or Republican. They can vote in these primaries as long as they pick one ballot.

  And on the Republican side, 42 percent of the people who turned out to vote identified as Republican — I'm sorry — as independent; 39 percent on the Democratic side identified as independent.

• GWEN IFILL:

  Pretty close.

• AMY WALTER:

  That's pretty close. The news for Kasich — and I agree with Tamara — he is hoping for a good night here — he needs a big turnout among independents.

  In 2012, the turnout among independents was almost 50 percent. Back in 2008, it was 37 percent. So, it's somewhere right in the middle there. It's probably a good number for Kasich. The question is if it is good enough.

  And then the other question about who is nervous tonight, Marco Rubio has to be very, very nervous. He came into Iowa with a head of steam. As we saw in this report, he's been struggling since the debate to get that momentum back. If he falls behind a Kasich, a Jeb in this primary, it's going to be a very difficult pivot for him to say that he's the candidate now who has the momentum going into South Carolina.

• GWEN IFILL:

  As we saw, everybody says they're going to South Carolina, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're all going to South Carolina.

  Tamara, you know, we were in New Hampshire in 1992, when Bill Clinton declared himself the comeback kid. We were there in 2008, where it looked like all the polls showed that Barack Obama was going to win, and he didn't. Hillary Clinton did.

  What going into — behind you in the scene — set there is the Trump bus, by the way. I'm just letting you know.

  (LAUGHTER)

• GWEN IFILL:

  What, going into tonight's voting and tonight's vote-counting, are we watching for, for a comeback?

• TAMARA KEITH:

  Well, this morning, I interviewed a couple of voters at a polling place who said that they had heard from the Hillary Clinton campaign, got knocks on their doors while they were still in pajamas.

  So, the Clinton campaign is definitely still efforting this and trying to get people out. But I asked one of her campaign officials, what are you looking for? What are you hoping for? There was no hint of hoping for a win. It was all about how — whether maybe they could get the win for Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders into single digits, maybe.

• AMY WALTER:

  And there is something telling about the fact that Hillary Clinton went up today with an ad in South Carolina talking about racial injustice and systemic racism, not a very — not a subtle shift, we're talking.

• GWEN IFILL:

  So, the strategy for the Hillary Clinton people have — they have already…

  (CROSSTALK)

• AMY WALTER:

  They are basically, like, let's just go into South Carolina, where we know the terrain is much more comfortable for us. We know that we're going to have to win over African-American voters, do very well among this group.

  She's already been running an ad featuring former Attorney General Eric Holder, now going in with this on police violence and other issues.

• GWEN IFILL:

  Tam, one of the big names coming out of Iowa only a week ago was Ted Cruz. But we haven't heard as much about him in this New Hampshire week. Where has he been, and where is he expected to land?

• TAMARA KEITH:

  Yes, this is less familiar, less friendly territory for him. He really has been running as an evangelical in Iowa, which is a great thing in Iowa.

  Here in New Hampshire, voters have different sensibilities. And he has been really trying to lower expectations heading into this vote. I think that his campaign really believes that they have strengths in the states that come after this, in the Southern states, in South Carolina. I think that they feel like they will be on much more friendly terrain once they get out of New Hampshire.

• GWEN IFILL:

  And speaking of South Carolina, you mentioned what Hillary Clinton was already doing on the air there, Amy. We heard today that Bernie Sanders is meeting tomorrow in New York with Al Sharpton.

  Obviously, people are beginning to change their approach to this.

• AMY WALTER:

  That's right. We're going from Iowa, New Hampshire, overwhelmingly white states, not diverse at all, now into Southern states like South Carolina. We will go to Nevada as well, which is very heavily Latino, and then into some of these Southern states.

  The terrain changes. It's supposed to be a better terrain for Hillary Clinton on a whole bunch of measures, but demography being the most important.

• GWEN IFILL:

  I saw in one of these exit polls, Amy, that a lot of people who self-described themselves as liberals were involved — a lot of self-described liberals voted in this election. Does that change, as well, also as they leave New Hampshire?

• AMY WALTER:

  I think, as we leave New Hampshire and even as we leave Iowa, we're going to get to a more moderate electorate.

  But I think what is different even this year than it was in 2008, certainly when we saw the comeback kid in 1992, the Democratic electorate is much more liberal than it has been at any previous point. And so this has been the challenge for Hillary Clinton, trying to keep up with a party that keeps moving to the left. It's not the party that it was back in the '90s.

• GWEN IFILL:

  And, Tam, does the more moderate electorate in New Hampshire also speak to one part of the reason why John Kasich at least is the subject of buzz, whether he will be the subject of votes tonight?

• TAMARA KEITH:

  Well, that, and that independents can vote in a different party.

  And I think John Kasich's recipe here is that he would pull Democratic-leaning independents to vote for him here. This is a place that's really a sweet spot for him, where some of his positions on, like, expanding Medicaid and things like that wouldn't necessarily be as much of a problem for him as in some other places.

• GWEN IFILL:

  OK, nose to the grindstone up there in New Hampshire tonight.

  Thanks for joining us, Tam.

  And thank you here in Washington, Amy Walter.