What the defeat at Debaltseve means for Ukraine

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• GWEN IFILL:

  To help us better understand the latest stumbling block for the Ukraine government, and the international reaction, I'm joined by chief foreign affairs correspondent Margaret Warner.

  Margaret, we just saw those amazing photographs from Debaltseve. And I wonder why that town is so important and how much of a setback is it that it was lost.

• MARGARET WARNER:

  It was very important, Gwen, because it was a little peninsula that Kiev still controlled surrounded by rebel-held territory.

  And it's actually such a crucial rail and highway hub that, as you can see from the map, now that they control it, they can unite or cement all the links between Luhansk and Donetsk, which are the capitals of the two breakaway regions. And they are going to have a much better communication and political control there.

  Secondly, it was a crucial commercial link between the east and the rest of Ukraine through which a lot of industrial products went back and worth and out for exports, so even though a lot of that's died down anyway, it's going to make even hard effort to knit this country together.

  But then the biggest disaster for the Ukrainian government is just the morale disaster. Here, Poroshenko had insisted that the Ukrainian military could withstand this, they would create these fortified positions, and in the end it ended in a horrible defeat. So it is really a setback for both him and the military leadership.

• GWEN IFILL:

  We just saw President Poroshenko basically talking about the U.S. and European nations coming to his support and his defense, but it seems like for all intents and purposes the cease-fire we talked about just last week has collapsed.

• MARGARET WARNER:

  Well, even though the U.S. and Germany and the troops Western powers aren't willing to admit that, and it's interesting that they won't — they won't declare it dead. They will just denounce what happened.

• GWEN IFILL:

  Right.

• MARGARET WARNER:

  But — and the reason is, they say, is that in other ways the cease-fire is taking hold. And some of the fighting has died down.

  And the fact that Russia signed on to this last week, they don't want to let any gains they can make in quelling the conflict to evaporate.

• GWEN IFILL:

  And he doesn't have any other options here really.

• MARGARET WARNER:

  Exactly. Exactly.

  Well, I mean, Poroshenko doesn't have any other options, but Putin is definitely driving this train. There is no doubt about it. So the U.S. and Germany are saying, well, in the end, last week's deal was about implementing the September Minsk deal and that will call for withdrawing heavy weaponry, ultimately resolving the conflict. Until Putin blows it up, we're not ready to blow it up.

• GWEN IFILL:

  But does it increase pressure on the West and on the U.S. in particular to do what some people have been urging them to do all along, which is arming the government?

• MARGARET WARNER:

  Oh, yes, because there really are only two options.

  One is the German approach, which is the slow, steady applications of more sanctions, and as they love to say, we thought the Berlin Wall would never fall, and ultimately it did. You just never accept the legality of what Russia or the Soviet Union has done, and keep up the pressure.

  But the other is the arming of the Ukrainian military. But both European and American diplomats said to me today the Ukrainian military just proved itself so incompetent that, how do you send in more sophisticated weapons to them without sending in NATO trainers to train them?

  And in the end, Gwen, Ukraine is so much more important to Russia than it is to either the U.S. or Europe. Just think if it was Mexico. You know, and so Putin's made it clear, you arm the Ukrainians, I will match you dollar for dollar. And one diplomat said to me, you know, how far are we ready to go down that path?

• GWEN IFILL:

  So, it sounds like we go through the motions, but that the current thinking is that we step back and let it just play out on its own?

• MARGARET WARNER:

  Well, nobody really knows what the thinking of the White House is.

  And so President Obama says that remains on the table. But it certainly — practically, it looks like a difficult option, for the reasons I just said, and also that Poroshenko's own government could be in trouble here because it undercuts his image of competence at home, which makes it harder for him to do all the economic reforms he needs to do. So, our friend in this fight, Ukraine, is really struggling.

• GWEN IFILL:

  Sounds like a hamster wheel to me.

• MARGARET WARNER:

  Yes.

• GWEN IFILL:

  Margaret Warner, thank you very much.

• MARGARET WARNER:

  As always.